The demand impact of the Covid-19 tail

As we look beyond the immediate impact of Covid-19 and consider how we reinvigorate the economy, getting the supply chain back up is extremely important. It is a critical factor if we are to get to a V-shape recovery. Any recovery is as dependent on supply as on demand. 

It is now clear that the apex for Covid-19 is going to be different across the world as the virus has shifted first to the west and now to the south of the globe. It is difficult to envisage the end of Covid-19 happening in a synchronised way. As the rest of the world goes on lock down, China is going to face a demand shock in Q2. This will become the problem that other economies face as they manage to get Covid-19 under control. 

As much as finding a cure or a vaccine is key to dealing with the humanitarian crisis, without a clear and reliable method to diagnose it earlier, the impact on economies will only linger. This tail will only exacerbate and further both the humanitarian and economic crisis.